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Fossil fuel emissions drive Europe’s winter rainfall changes decades earlier than expected

Climate and Weather

Europe’s Winter Rainfall Shift from Emissions

Business Honor
25 November, 2025

New study warns UK faces accelerated rainfall increases and underestimated winter flood risks today

New research has found that emissions from fossil fuels are accelerating dangerous shifts in Europe's winter rainfall patterns by more than two decades, raising urgent concerns for the UK's climate resilience. In a study published in Environmental Research Letters, it was observed that northern and central Europe of, which the UK is a part, is already recording winter rainfall levels that, according to climate models, were not expected to arrive until the mid-2040s.

Scientists at Newcastle University, UK, examined rainfall trends between 1950 and 2024 and found that human-induced warming is significantly intensifying winter rainfall over northern Europe while promoting drier conditions across the Mediterranean. These changes appear to be closely associated with the shift in the North Atlantic jet stream along with other atmospheric circulation features. Even after accounting for natural variability, the rainfall increase observed was far higher than that projected by leading climate models.

Professor Hayley Fowler, Professor of Climate Change Impacts at Newcastle University, warned that the UK is already feeling the consequences. “What we saw recently in Monmouth is another stark reminder that the UK is facing severe weather impacts driven by our continued reliance on fossil fuels,” she said. “Our study shows that winter rainfall is increasing far more quickly than climate models project—reaching levels now that models don’t detect until the 2040s.”

Lead author Dr. James Carruthers added that winter flood risk across northern Europe is likely being severely underestimated, with current hazards already exceeding projected levels. This underestimation could leave national adaptation plans, flood defenses, drainage systems, and emergency services unprepared for present-day conditions.

These results come as global climate negotiations struggle to make significant moves in commitments to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Researchers emphasize that without rapid action to reduce emissions and enhance flood resilience, the UK and Europe will face increasingly frequent and severe winter flooding which will threaten communities, infrastructure, and essential services.