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NASA Warns Asteroid 2024 YR4 could Strike Earth in 2032

Space

Business Honor
14 Febuary, 2025

NASA monitors asteroid 2024 YR4, with a 1.6% chance of impact in 2032.

According to NASA, an asteroid could strike Earth in 2032. In roughly eight years, there is a larger than one percent probability that an asteroid the size of a football field will strike Earth. Depending on where it hits, such an impact could cause destruction at the city level.

The asteroid, known as 2024 YR4, was initially observed by Chile's El Sauce Observatory on December 27, 2024. Astronomers estimate its width to be between 130 and 300 feet, depending on its brightness. The European Space Agency said in a statement that "an asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region.

The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), global planetary defense collaboration, released a message on January 29 as the danger estimate continued to rise. The most recent estimates from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory indicate that the asteroid's odds of striking Earth on December 22, 2032, are 1.6%. According to the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, the asteroid 2024 YR4 is now classified as "a close encounter" that merits astronomers' and the public's concern, with a Level 3 rating out of 10. According to the IAWN memo, potential impact locations include the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, South Asia, northern South America, and the eastern Pacific Ocean.

The target asteroid was a perfect test subject because it did not threaten Earth. A portion of the asteroid might be vaporized by lasers to provide a propulsion effect that would cause it to veer off course. There have also been theories of a "gravity tractor," a massive spacecraft that uses its own gravitational force to gradually drag the asteroid away. The extended warning period allows officials to evacuate the impact zone in the event of an emergency.

Nevertheless, NASA monitors near-misses and determines the likelihood that those space rocks, such as asteroids, meteors, and meteorites, may strike Earth.